![]() Barring extraordinary events on the battlefield, Ukraine is unlikely to be able to defeat Russia definitively before winter sets in. At the same time, there may now be an unfolding opportunity to make progress around Kherson in south, where Russia is likely to have to withdraw forces.Ĭritical, now, is what political impact this will have. A Russian loss of Izium relieves the pressure on Sloviansk from the north-west, and allows Ukraine to try to reverse the losses it has sustained in the Donbas – the collective name for Donetsk and Luhansk provinces – starting in the direction of Lysychansk. Ukraine can now target supply lines into northern Luhansk province. On the other hand, maps released by Russia’s ministry of defence on Sunday indicate that it plans to retreat to the Oskil River line the length of Kharkiv province – and it is not clear if the front will stabilise there. The combination of western-supplied intelligence, weapons and training finally appears to be bearing fruit, but pushing too far forward in one go can bring its own risks. Nevertheless, is not clear how far Ukraine can sustain its momentum. Meanwhile, because the Kremlin refuses to label its war in Ukraine as such, Moscow can mobilise limited additional resources. Russia’s overall force quality has gradually degraded, at about 100,000 soldiers, who are rarely rotated out to recuperate, and have to cover the vast Ukraine front. The latest battle for Izium demonstrates how thinly spread the invaders have become. Now it suddenly appears that Russia spent months engaged in an attritional conflict that at first only brought it limited gains – Sievierodonetsk – then latterly almost nothing at all as it failed to capture Bakhmut. ![]() Russia had been proceeding on the assumption that it could, with the relentless use of heavy artillery – 15,000 to 20,000 shells a day – grind its way west. ![]() But above all it showed use of combined arms in appropriate strength not seen before. It made good use of intelligence to spot the Russian weak point, and exploited the geography – the river – to maximum advantage. Ukraine’s success has partly been achieved by use of both tanks and infantry, on a front where the enemy was weakened by long-range artillery strikes (most likely from US and other MLRS rocket artillery). That cut off Izium, a key military centre, to the south and prompted the Russians to abandon a city seized at the end of March. Ukraine’s forces first encircled Balakliia, 45 miles south-east of Kharkiv, then pressed north to reach the broad Oskil River south of the rail and supply hub of Kupiansk, entering the city thereafter. ![]() Ukraine counteroffensive in Kharkiv region ![]()
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